Ep 368: AskGamblers - Do you use gut instinct or research for sports betting?
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Hi everyone, welcome back to the iGaming Daily Podcast. Do you bet on sports? If you're listening to this, chances are that you've probably placed a bet at least once in your life. While I'm not ashamed to admit that I haven't, I know for a fact based on insider knowledge that my co-host for today has. You already know him, you've heard his beautiful voice over a million times now. James Ross, ladies and gentlemen, chief of multimedia editing here at ASBC. I like that chief of multimedia editor. Yeah. It's just a multimedia editor, but I might pitch that chief of multimedia editor to our managing director. Well, you're welcome. You're welcome, James. Yeah, that's your new job role from now on. At least while you are on a podcast with me. You also said beautiful voice, but I'm currently suffering with a sore throat thanks to my Yet again, my son is ill, so if you hear me sipping some LempSip, I apologize. Is this the reason why you were out the past week? I haven't been really seeing you. How are you doing? I'm glad to see my, my leave has gone unnoticed. Um, no, I was on annual leave last week because it was my, uh, it was my birthday on Thursday. Happy birthday. Thank you. Celebrating the big 21st. I already wish you a happy birthday in the group chats, but, uh, 21st, are you sure about that? Aren't you a decade late? I would say a decade, because I'd be 31. No, no, celebrating my 30th birthday. All right, how is it? Are you feeling good? I'm feeling 30. Yeah, no, it is nice. So on a Thursday, me and my brother, we are, because we're twins, we celebrated the birthday. We went for a meal with my wife as well. And then on the Friday, we went. to, well me and my wife did the Tolkien trail, and for the listeners who don't know what that is, it's the trail or the walk that the author of The Lord of the Rings, J.R.R. Tolkien did that inspired him to create the Shire in Lord of the Rings. I didn't know that. Was it a long walk? Sounds like a long walk. Yeah, so it was just under six miles long, took us about three hours, and I thought I was kind of being original by playing like the Shire music throughout the whole... walk on my phone. Yeah, you have to do it. But then we kind of walked past a load of other people doing the same thing. So I just thought you're in that original. You're not the first one to think about it. No, no, I wasn't. So, yeah, I did that. Apart from that, my wife bought me my last big birthday gift. So she got me a top of the range PC for to do my video game streaming on the side. So nice. Nice, congratulations. I'm happy for you. Again, happy birthday from me and everyone listening. Thank you, thank you. All right, so let me ask you this. When was the last time you waged it? It was before the international break. I always like to put a weekend accumulator on the Premier League football and then sometimes I'll delve into the EFL as well to do a separate accumulator for that as well. All right. And who was your last bit on? As in operator or team? Team. OK. Right. So specifically, it's always kind of the United game, Manchester United game, because that's the team that I follow when I watch them. So I always do kind of build the bets, or kind of halftime boost or pre-match boosts before then. But like I said, everything else apart from that is kind of accumulated. So it's a variety of different teams. to either win, lose or draw. All right, and again, your last bit, did you win or did you lose? Hmm, so I put three build-a-bets on one of them, came through two didn't. If that's because they were in the same game, it was kind of, you couldn't dignify that as one last one. So one, lost two. All right. If we're just going team specific. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I will accept your answer. It's the only one you're getting. Okay, so I've already unceremoniously admitted that I'm a newbie to sports bidding. So could you lift the curtain a bit for me and briefly walk me through your decision process before placing a bid? Yeah. So I'll do the accumulator process and then I'll do the request of that process because there are two, the two distinctive things. So the... Accumulators, I usually look into the past team's performance, which players are kind of performing well, teams are scoring well, you know, who are conceding the most. Look into where they are placed in the league and compare the two together. But obviously you have to go on performances as well, because a team at the bottom may be having some decent results or playing well. So that's kind of what I do with the accumulators. I only spend about a solid hour just going through past fixtures and all the inside data on that one. And then you're quite limited on some of the request abets or halftime boosts. Halftime boosts I normally use kind of my, uh, I'm going to throw this in now before you actually say what it is. I use my gut instinct in terms of, uh, who I think might succeed. Like if, I don't know, Erland Harland has three or more shots on target in the first half, this could be kind of a first half boost. I think that's quite a safe bet if they're playing someone. placed 10th or below in the league. And then the request of bets. It's a bit of go with my gut and a bit of research. So I'll tend to do some yellow cards. Who do I know who gets booked all the time? If it's United game, chances are Bruno Fernandes will get himself in the referee's book. More on every match day because he's just complained all the time. I'll look at who's having the most shots, most pot shots. and kind of who's, how many corners we'll concede if it's, again, if we're playing someone that we should be dominating, I say should because it's Manchester United, I would think, oh, okay, United might get quite a few corners in here or vice versa. Okay, you pointed out that you do a bit of research beforehand, regardless of your bit, but you are actually in the minority because did you know that The average British better prefers to bet out of sheer instinct rather than doing proper research beforehand. So you obviously say that you sometimes bet on instinct, but you actually do your research as well. Well, the majority of people do not do that, do not do their research. They actually bet on sheer instinct. This was announced as part of a study by casino affiliate website, Ask Gamblers, which really lived up to its name. by asking a thousand UK gamblers about their go-to strategy when placing a bet. But before we dive into this, a word from our sponsor which is, you guessed it, OptiMove, the number one CRM marketing solution for the iGaming market. New clients can claim a free first month when they join OptiMove by heading to www.optimove.com So, back to our topic, trusting your good instinct when wagering. According to the report by Ask Ambers, 54% of those surveyed tend to do this or i.e. the majority as many studies and papers like to say. If someone who wages, is this surprising to you? No, no, I'd probably say no. I mean, I know a few people who are like me at my friend's group. We were quite in-depth when we do bets. But again, I know quite a large majority of people, I'll probably say my father included, who just go and gut instinct or place a bet. Maybe from what they've watched in the past and kind of use their educated guess in that way. But no, yeah, I think, I don't think it's a massive surprise because a large majority of people who do bet tend to just do kind of weekend flutters. Like even when you look at the Grand National, for instance, that gets a large amount of bets each time it's on. But you can't say those people betting are reoccurring bettors. They're not, they're there for the thrill and to embrace themselves in the occasion, which for horse racing and betting, it's kind of the two in two go hand in hand. So I'll probably say not massively surprised. Yeah. Okay. And you said, you know, a lot of people who do that, gender based, are they more female or are they more male? So from my side, it's more of a male orientated. kind of group. Okay. So let's do a quick quiz. Generally, when it comes to female male ratio, who do you think is more likely to wager based on your gut instinct? I'd probably say, I think men would probably wager more on gut instinct than females, because I know quite a lot of females who are really kind of information, kind of focused on what they do and anything. Interesting. Well, According to Ask Camp Wars, it is women. They feel more adventurous with their bits compared to men with 57 percent to 53, respectively, which you said that women tend to be more looking to more information about your bits. Well, I am on the opposite opinion. I think that women betting more on gun, get instincts, sounds more logical to me as I feel that the majority of fans who tend to follow closely some of the most popular sports for betting, you said horse racing, but the most popular in my opinion are basketball and football are men. So my explanation is that when you religiously watch a sport, you're more likely to have a deep understanding of team performances, season history, player ratings, et cetera. Whereas if you tune in randomly, you would be more inclined to place a bet based on feedback you've gotten recently. For example, someone has given you an advice who to bet on, or you just like what you're seeing from the team or player at that exact moment. So this is how I feel. Yeah, I mean, I think everything like that is kind of subjective to kind of your own personal experiences. I mean, again, I know female betters are females who would bet and they do their due diligence more but I also think when it actually comes to men, and you've mentioned there that majority of fans, they tend to follow the teams or the sports that they're betting on quite closely. Well, actually that kind of could lead to more men who do this or not just men, more men and women who... follow the sports to kind of tune into what they believe they know and kind of go on a rational judgment and gut instinct instead of then actually relying themselves to delve into the data because they already think to themselves, I follow this sport hand in hand. I'm going to just go with what I know off my gut instinct instead of let's actually look into the data instead of just relying on what I think I know because I've always bought 24 seven. You're right, again, this might be the case. But the next statistic that I'm going to quote kind of reflects what I just said about men being the hardcore sports fans versus women being the more casual ones. According to Ask Gamblers, when it comes to the aftermath of placing a bet based on pure instinct, men are more likely to regret their choice compared to women. So to me, this confirms that men are more invested in sports than women, at least from the pool of a thousand people who are surveyed. I don't know if you share my thoughts on that. Um, I don't know if it backs up your thoughts, but it might actually back up my thinking of this. Like I said, like women might actually, I think do more due diligence when it comes to betting. So they don't regret their choices because they've, they've followed as much information as they possibly can. The men who bet on good. gut instinct, they probably regret their choice because they didn't do as much due diligence when it comes to looking at the data that's actually available and kind of coming up with their own conclusions that way instead of relying on their gut instinct. Mm-hmm. It's up for debate really. That's what is interesting about this survey and why we're covering it today. But let's do another quiz. Which sports do you think has the lowest success rate when it comes to placing a bet while trusting your gut instinct? So you don't win anything just to qualify. So don't try too hard. That's what I'm trying to think too hard about now. I'd probably go boxing because there's a lot of odds out there and a lot of different bets you can make within boxing and obviously it's harder to predict those type of sports. Well, wrong guess and you should have known this as a United fan because as it turns out, it is football with 64% of those who have done a bit based on your instinct, admitting to flying too close to the sun. Okay. I mean, in hindsight, that probably does kind of make sense because football is one of the biggest sports to kind of play on in the UK. I think it is the biggest sport. They've always been chasing each other, but yeah, you're right. So in terms of volume, yeah, it makes sense. But not a bad guess with boxing. However, despite all of this, I still think that there is light at the end of the tunnel because whooping 70% of all the surveyed bettors in the study advise newcomers such as myself. to first conduct a thorough research before placing a bid, which to me sounds a bit paradoxical given that the majority apparently doesn't listen to their own advice, don't you think? They don't. And like we said, this is kind of all on gut instinct, but I think newcomers should probably take that advice and there's no harm. I mean, I've said it many times, not just in kind of sports betting, but even when I was a writer on slot beats. That's quite a complex thing to get your head around in terms of how a slot works and navigate some kind of what you need to look out for doing your research in terms of what volatility means and RTP. Again, I'm going on slots. Um, what symbols pay out the highest low, the highest paying, the lowest paying, the wilds and stuff like that. It does well to kind of enhance the experience and the enjoyability of placing a bet and that's kind of what we should always remember that the first and foremost place in a bet should be. entertaining, it should be fun, it should be engaging. I agree and easy to make as well, not too complicated. But okay, on that note, thank you for joining me for this interesting talk. I hope that you and everyone listening will reflect on the key takeaway from that episode, which is to make sure that your bit is a well educated choice rather than indulging in instinctive betting. For iGamingDaily this was Victor Kyle and James Ross See you soon in the next episode